Dante, in his Inferno, posited that the ninth level of Hell was a lake of ice known as Cocytus with the damned encased in ice to progressively greater depths. So in reality, a snowball's chance in Hell is actually 1 in 9.
One thing that I have noticed about conspiracy theories is that they all depend on the government perpetrators being endlessly clever. I think you'll find that government perpetrators are endlessly stupid.